EUR/USD: Reversal Up? |

turned down from double top with July 6.

Bears want measured move down from below April to May trading range. That is almost exactly at Mar. 31 low.


Should eventually reach Mar. 31 low or Nov. 4 low at around 1.16, but might test June 25 high first.

Yesterday broke slightly below July 7 low.

Today so far is reversing up.

This is a lower low double bottom with the July 7 low, a failed breakout below that wedge bottom (50% of the time, a breakout below a wedge fails and the market reverses up), and a new wedge bottom where June 18 and July 7 are the 1st 2 lows.

Lots of bars with tails since June 18. This is a sign of uncertainty.

It increases chance that selloff from June 25 is just a bear leg in a trading range instead of a resumption of the bear trend.

Because of all of the tails and reversals since June 18, the odds favor a reversal up for a couple weeks starting soon. It might be starting today.

November low is bottom of yearlong trading range and a bounce for several weeks is more likely than a successful breakout. The bounce can come at any time, even from below the November low.

Less likely, selloff will break strongly below yearlong range and fall for measured move down to the March 2020 low at 1.06.

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