Bitcoin’s High Volatility Can Impact The US Stock Market: DBS Research

Bitcoin is no longer regarded as a niche asset as its high price fluctuations impact the stock markets, concluded researchers from Singapore’s DBS Group Holdings Ltd. In a recent paper, they outlined the increased correlation between the two markets ever since BTC started to appreciate in value in late 2020.

Bitcoin Is No Longer a Fringe Asset

The primary cryptocurrency went through a significantly bullish period from the start of October 2020 to mid-April, in which its value increased by more than six-fold to $65,000. Despite its most recent turbulence, the asset captured the attention of celebrities, institutions, prominent investors, and more.

DBS’s Macro Strategist Chang Wei Lian and Chief Economist Taimur Baig outlined this growth in their most recent paper.

“The upshot is that Bitcoin is no longer the fringe asset that it once was.”

BTC’s surge can also impact other markets. The analysts wrote that ever since the primary cryptocurrency started to gain traction last year, the correlation with stocks increased.

“Our finding is that Bitcoin is positively correlated with S&P 500 futures (thus acting as a risky asset), and this is the case for every month since Nov 2020.”

Although it’s still relatively low, the correlation can still “generate spillovers into US equities,” especially when BTC’s price goes through massive price fluctuations.

DBS’s researchers breached several trading days in which bitcoin went up or down by more than 10% in a matter of hours. Each was followed by enhanced market moves for the S&P 500 in the same direction.

“This suggests that broader equity sentiment could become more coupled with sentiment in Bitcoin markets for a temporary period of time.”

YTD Returns; BTC vs. S&P 500

With the increasing correlation between BTC and S&P 500, it’s also worth reviewing their returns since the start of the year. Although both are well in the green, one has significantly outperformed the other, even though it’s 40% away from the mid-April peak.

Various Assets Performance. Source: Skew
Various Assets Performance. Source: Skew

 

As the graph above demonstrates, the prominent US index, following the performance of the 500 largest companies listed on American exchanges, is up by 11% since the start of 2021. In the same period, though, bitcoin has marked an ROI of nearly 40%.

Interestingly, the second-largest cryptocurrency has outperformed both, with a massive increase of over 280% since the start of the year.

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